【Analysis of market conditions】：

First of all， the core of the current market lies in the weak downstream demand， and it is difficult for the market to continue to rebound。 During the holiday period， the outbreak of the epidemic in Beilun， Ningbo will cause possible short-term supply shortages in East China， but in the face of the pressure of the Spring Festival， the downstream market has limited momentum to catch up。 We believe that it is difficult for PE to have sustained upward momentum before the Spring Festival， because the market currently has neither time safety margin nor space safety margin for the downstream。 There is uncertainty about the impact of public health incidents in the later period， and terminal enterprises may have early holidays， which are not suitable for large-scale downstream procurement。 Therefore， the markets short-term rebound is difficult to sustain， and there is still pressure in the later period。

Second， As far as the medium-term market is concerned， there are many pressures at the moment。 On the one hand， new production capacity on the supply side is put into production， on the other hand， there is demand pressure in the off-season。 The darkest moment of the current weak market pattern may be around the Spring Festival。 The market terminal demand has not collapsed， but expectations are generally weak， and a large number of oversolds avoid the expected potential risks。 But after the Spring Festival， the market may be a different picture。 Demand is stable， downstream profits are neutral but low inventories and a large amount of supply is oversold。 Instead， the market gradually stabilizes and rebounds after the end of January。

Third， In 2021， the commodity bull market brought about by the new crown epidemic will basically end。

（文章来源：国泰君安期货）